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| Ceasefire is a gamble |
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THE considered analysis on Page One of what Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah means in reality exposes some of its weaknesses. It is far from a firm solution to the conflict which, like the war in Gaza, has not been of Israel’s making. Israel has been the protagonist in neither, yet has been villified for retaliating, which is the recognised right of any country under attack.
The ceasefire is for an initial two months, but make no mistake, it is fragile. Only yesterday, the IDF opened fire on “suspects” in southern Lebanon who were allegedly violating the agreement, with tanks targeting six areas within two kilometres of a strip of land demarcating the border between Lebanon and Israel. The temporary accord gives IDF the implicit right to hit back any time Hezbollah breaches the agreement, and that would include the actions of any splinter group that decides to take unilateral action against Israel. Jerusalem will not differentiate. The ceasefire is a gamble, because while Israel has wiped out the terror group’s senior leaders and considerably weakened it by destroying strongholds and arsenals, the two month hiatus potentially gives it time to regroup and rearm. Thus, the pause could be a case of posturing and gamesmanship. It is a gamble, too, for residents of Israel’s north to return to their homes after a year away, knowing that inside eight weeks they could be forced to abandon them once again. Meanwhile, Hamas is said to be seeking a similar accord. This is rather more difficult. While its hierarchy, too, has been all but wiped out, Israel is unlikely in the foreseeable future to pull out of Gaza entirely and, in any case, the release of all remaining hostages would be a precondition to any agreement. Hamas is in no position to dictate terms. Its wilful massacre in southern Israel last year has led directly to the deaths of tens of thousands of Gazans. Surely Jerusalem will permanently monitor the Gaza coast as well as maintaining a presence within the enclave to prevent Hamas rearming, regrouping and rebuilding its network of tunnels. As it stands, Israel has everything potentially to lose by withdrawing completely. To read more on this story, subscribe to our new e-edition. Go to E-edition.jewishtelegraph.com.
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